Europa Conference League · resolved market
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Celtic FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc712925eadce2e61144ff255bacc3ef883dd3cf00549d5c46a37352f8b7d8e6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 74c | 10,030$7,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,606.45 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 28c | 6,608$1,873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,873.34 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 15c | 1,471$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.65 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 31c | 892.76$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.58 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Over | 15c | 799.71$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.96 | 190 | 27.4%52 W · 138 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 15c | 699$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.85 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 15c | 654.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -8.0wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 16c | 612.13$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.91 | 139 | 20.1%28 W · 111 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 72c | 592.35$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.21 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 64c | 447.52$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 56c | 411.5$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.44 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 23c | 280.73$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.92 | 377 | 50.9%192 W · 185 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 15c | 266.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 152 | 24.3%37 W · 115 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 38c | 214.75$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…8cb2backed Over | 26c | 190$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 17c | 170$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 32c | 156.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 15c | 138.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2285…4bf1backed Over | 30c | 115$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 78 | 29.5%23 W · 55 L | -11.2wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…132abacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | -7.8wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 45c | 72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 62c | 68.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ed…e29fbacked Under | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 26c | 62.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Over | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Under | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad4…1bf2backed Over | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 51c | 33.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…9725backed Over | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…434dbacked Over | 62c | 25.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55c6…30f4backed Under | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc27f…12a9backed Under | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 46c | 23.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Celtic FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Celtic FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Celtic FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Celtic FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. Celtic FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)Celtic FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.