F1 · resolved market
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3332a0df6be6bfa9378286721c193f7aa854a9ff076335f2b4e211b13bc6ac7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 3c | 13,157$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.86 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…dc83backed Yes | 11c | 6,715$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.65 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Yes | 9c | 4,982$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.67 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 1c | 4,464$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed Yes | 3c | 3,633$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.36 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8a…2953backed Yes | 0c | 3,190$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb758…dd73backed Yes | 13c | 3,080$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.35 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd29d…b038backed Yes | 6c | 2,689$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.31 | 100 | 20%20 W · 80 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20b7…91b2backed Yes | 5c | 1,610$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.51 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e3…9f8cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,595$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,270$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.1 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7906…be5dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,037$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +178.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e8…f43dbacked Yes | 2c | 967.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae2b…90eabacked Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 1c | 885$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e2…1f9abacked Yes | 7c | 636.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 247 | 20.6%51 W · 196 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce9…0cf5backed Yes | 7c | 635.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 2c | 585$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 159 | 22%35 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x332a…c9a2backed Yes | 3c | 561.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…cf15backed Yes | 3c | 499.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d83…272cbacked Yes | 4c | 474.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdd…8271backed Yes | 4c | 467.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x949c…ab2cbacked Yes | 6c | 465.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 424.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fff…9d61backed Yes | 3c | 388.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a8…d7b7backed Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f1…a6a2backed Yes | 7c | 382.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 4c | 325.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 9c | 308.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 101 | 42.6%43 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes | 6c | 277$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.45per pick | 18cpaid | +207.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd31…d389backed Yes | 9c | 199.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe52f…37b4backed Yes | 6c | 169.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…200bbacked Yes | 8c | 145.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460e…fd6fbacked Yes | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?this page
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?No won
- Will Gabriel Bortoleto win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?No won
- Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?No won
- Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.