Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33374f2dc9d261a5a67b9706ce9e4a7896d1b33d690bb2c794a753e41862fd17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,071
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,071 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 7c | 1,321$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.29 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fc…ce0bbacked Yes | 17c | 954.96$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 3c | 866.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 2c | 799.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 2c | 750.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 3c | 618.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 7c | 585.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 23c | 464.31$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.53 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 12c | 426.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 27c | 407.14$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.14 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 5c | 304.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 5c | 263.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 26c | 257$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.82 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 80c | 234.83$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.91 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 7c | 162$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 7c | 150.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 13c | 148.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x462f…fb33backed Yes | 26c | 99.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 10c | 97.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc54…db0ebacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 91.87$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 22c | 81.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 79c | 81.18$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 31c | 80.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 31c | 80.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 23c | 57.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 57.09$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 56.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 19c | 55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac0…0cebbacked Yes | 26c | 43.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 80c | 41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 80c | 40.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 79c | 37.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 78c | 24.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 79c | 19.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.