Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x102f2a2359a06f5386042b423a204ecf3017b189dcce6485571b4f7ad39fdc65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 50c | 1,026$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.99 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 77c | 738.78$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.29 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 37c | 595.23$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.17 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 546$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.41 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 67c | 493.1$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.76 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 36c | 412.94$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.78 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 401.1$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.28 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 374.7$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.18 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 31c | 374.19$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 49c | 347.71$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.38 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 51c | 290.6$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.93 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 278.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeead…178dbacked Yes | 72c | 277.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.51 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 72cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 265.59$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.2 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 263.82$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…e804backed Yes | 40c | 250.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.01 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 45c | 241.24$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.68 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 66c | 220.42$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.93 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 50c | 220.4$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.2 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 18c | 218$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 56c | 206.31$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.09 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 52c | 206.15$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.23 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 41c | 200$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.97 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 36c | 188.31$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.14 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 172.18$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.62 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 46c | 167.94$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.27 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 35c | 165.97$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.48 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 36c | 164.81$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.27 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 35c | 159.74$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 41c | 156.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.02 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 78c | 145.96$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7848…bde0backed Yes | 59c | 143.38$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed No | 23c | 137.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3c…c6d8backed Yes | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 132$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 50c | 122$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 47c | 119.95$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.9 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 119.87$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.27 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b93…cdecbacked Yes | 51c | 110.05$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 110$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 15c | 109.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1146…442abacked Yes | 37c | 108.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed No | 53c | 107.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b8…cccfbacked Yes | 41c | 106$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 57c | 101.68$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 33c | 101.08$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.3 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed No | 52c | 99.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 31c | 97.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 62c | 95.17$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 15c | 93.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 53c | 89.2$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 54c | 85.37$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 55c | 81.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 67c | 81.52$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 56c | 81.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 48c | 80.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 47c | 80.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 80$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa872…02c3backed Yes | 59c | 78$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 38c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 71.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 36c | 65.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 38c | 65.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.54 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 48c | 59.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 48c | 57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x464a…c419backed Yes | 35c | 56.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d08…9232backed Yes | 47c | 56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 19c | 53.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 27c | 52.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 29c | 51.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed No | 41c | 51.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…d9cebacked No | 50c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98c…a75ebacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed No | 32c | 46.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed No | 32c | 46.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked No | 32c | 46.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 32c | 46.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 39c | 46.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 39c | 45.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed No | 33c | 45.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 34c | 44.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a4…0a91backed Yes | 63c | 43.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe942…dec7backed Yes | 68c | 43.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e6…fa86backed Yes | 68c | 43.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…b52abacked No | 34c | 42.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 40.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.