Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdea1d98bc89971b98db2219c460043a15d2c0c28b8a5cdd66dd166baa21cded0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,755
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,755 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 35c | 1,701$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.96 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 9c | 1,482$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.2 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 24c | 1,291$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.33 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fc…ce0bbacked Yes | 33c | 1,258$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…e804backed No | 75c | 1,066$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 1c | 765.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 612.22$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.72 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 546$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.23 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 77c | 465.84$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.12 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 22c | 415.13$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.02 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 65c | 413.94$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.96 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 34c | 396.38$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.77 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa067…0a3ebacked Yes | 35c | 367.73$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.02 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 365.73$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.53 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 65c | 324$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 10c | 314.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 17c | 297.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 292$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 12c | 240.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed Yes | 19c | 210.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 21c | 209.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed Yes | 34c | 200$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.04 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 26c | 199.94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7076…b1e4backed Yes | 19c | 190.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 31c | 178.16$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 34c | 176$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 15c | 175$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 165.24$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 26c | 143.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 70c | 141.01$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 78c | 133.76$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 9c | 128.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9db2…43aabacked No | 79c | 127.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 15c | 126.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 123.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 118.25$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 26c | 110.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 19c | 106.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 78c | 105$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07de…d541backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379f…7d70backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 19c | 96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 34c | 95.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 69c | 95.17$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 32c | 94.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 32c | 93.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x081f…bf8fbacked No | 75c | 91.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 33c | 82.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 73c | 81.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 75.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 76c | 75.13$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 66c | 74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed Yes | 18c | 69.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 21c | 63.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 59c | 63.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a3…ec1ebacked Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 65c | 62.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 68c | 62$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x464a…c419backed Yes | 19c | 61.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 30c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 19c | 54.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 71c | 52.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed No | 64c | 51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 75c | 50.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 40c | 50.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…369cbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b8…cccfbacked Yes | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 72c | 48.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 75c | 46.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 39c | 42.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 65c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…e076backed Yes | 27c | 41.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5871…c0bdbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 72c | 39.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 44c | 35.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 31c | 32.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa7da…5b7bbacked Yes | 40c | 32.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 31.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 43c | 31.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90f2…ef25backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.