Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41bfe88110e3f146563cbcc66a90f09bd72d78d4488bbecd2ce227c73e455f29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 26c | 1,150$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.21 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 24c | 1,125$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.59 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 1,117$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.39 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 19c | 699.83$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.66 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 546$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.32 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 21c | 531.61$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.15 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 24c | 492.82$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.12 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 463.19$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.51 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 25c | 410$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.59 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 63c | 384.62$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 346.7$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.24 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…e804backed Yes | 31c | 306.62$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 266.4$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 74c | 257.7$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.33 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94bf…1d2fbacked No | 78c | 244.39$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 74c | 214.24$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b93…cdecbacked No | 70c | 207.24$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.57 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 21c | 199.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 43c | 195$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.46 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…2bfcbacked Yes | 23c | 193$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 24c | 190$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 165.36$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed Yes | 38c | 161.61$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.35 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 19c | 157.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 153.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 25c | 152.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 18c | 150.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 27c | 145.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db2…43aabacked No | 76c | 131.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…b929backed No | 78c | 127.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 9c | 126.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 121.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 121.06$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 19c | 117.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 117.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cef…d85bbacked Yes | 24c | 116.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…bc41backed No | 79c | 114.36$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 75c | 106.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 66c | 105.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 19c | 105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 12c | 104.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 33c | 103.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 22c | 100.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b8…cccfbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3875…7707backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked Yes | 26c | 97.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7076…b1e4backed Yes | 21c | 95.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 73c | 95.17$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 76c | 91.43$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 91.35$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 91$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 21c | 90.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 75c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 76c | 78.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 73c | 78$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 24c | 77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa872…02c3backed Yes | 34c | 73.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 15c | 72.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 17c | 71.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7848…bde0backed Yes | 31c | 70.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 35c | 69.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafc3…33e8backed Yes | 19c | 68.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 41c | 67.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 18c | 67.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb2…d640backed No | 71c | 65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d08…9232backed Yes | 46c | 65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06ba…348cbacked No | 76c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 22c | 64.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 37c | 59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 80c | 58.91$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed Yes | 18c | 55.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 73c | 55.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 24c | 53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 80c | 50.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…7127backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 77c | 46.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bf…40bebacked No | 79c | 38.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 60c | 37.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 34c | 34.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…09e7backed No | 75c | 34.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 73c | 28.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 76c | 26.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 78c | 26.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.