MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x334dc52c47df74e7f3d97d6fa9c335cb34142e8cc35446c7bfcacf2108d1592f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof Boston Red Sox, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaca0…9b86backed Boston Red Sox | 43c | 12,492$5,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,310.18 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked San Diego Padres | 57c | 4,034$2,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,717.24 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed San Diego Padres | 69c | 2,862$1,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.76 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked San Diego Padres | 57c | 1,883$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.11 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 1,500$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked San Diego Padres | 58c | 1,462$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 1,114$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.98 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 800$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.5 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ce…bf90backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 684.8$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.62 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 601.68$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.7 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 600$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked San Diego Padres | 52c | 582.84$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.5 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d0…1310backed Boston Red Sox | 34c | 569.87$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.33 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Boston Red Sox | 34c | 569.87$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.33 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 547.07$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.28 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Boston Red Sox | 42c | 220.59$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.65 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 214.16$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.95 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…12d0backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 206.65$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.73 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Boston Red Sox | 11c | 163.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Boston Red Sox | 11c | 161.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7335…dd65backed Boston Red Sox | 11c | 161.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Boston Red Sox | 9c | 155.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 377 | 47.2%178 W · 199 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Boston Red Sox | 9c | 155.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 131.61$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.59 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x483a…4fd0backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 114.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 102.37$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 97.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 97.48$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 541 | 46.8%253 W · 288 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Boston Red Sox | 43c | 96.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Boston Red Sox | 43c | 85.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x015d…7bc7backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 68.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ece…068abacked Boston Red Sox | 21c | 58.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Boston Red Sox | 41c | 55.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked San Diego Padres | 61c | 55.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Boston Red Sox | 41c | 53.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 49.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…68ecbacked San Diego Padres | 50c | 48.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked San Diego Padres | 58c | 37.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…08f3backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 37.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 36.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 34.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 34.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Boston Red Sox | 42c | 33.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 32.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 29.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Boston Red Sox | 53c | 26.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked San Diego Padres | 74c | 20.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba9…4fa1backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 19.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red SoxSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 13.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.