MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91022fed64abf2a768ebba07fb4f8b0892df572a6cb5d13dde3530f1a6efc63a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,074
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,939
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,074 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 43c | 2,558$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.56 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 53c | 2,007$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.72 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Over | 46c | 1,465$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.76 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Over | 46c | 891.51$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.41 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 55c | 740.03$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.83 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Under | 26c | 712.18$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.78 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 70c | 708.53$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.52 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 646.86$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.61 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61b…e7babacked Under | 68c | 642.47$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 58c | 603.97$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.3 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 47c | 511.71$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.05 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 45c | 473.76$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.07 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 34c | 458.67$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.66 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 50c | 380.7$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.62 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Over | 46c | 315.15$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.18 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d0…1310backed Over | 46c | 312.78$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.9 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8289…0bf5backed Over | 47c | 309$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.77 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 47c | 294.28$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.97 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 292.91$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.31 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 54c | 219.24$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.31 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 47c | 215$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.95 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -5.5wins | -0.22per pick | 54cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 31c | 187.4$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.3 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 54c | 133.33$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 44c | 125$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.25 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed Under | 52c | 117.78$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Over | 68c | 108.18$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.62 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3a…e1f0backed Under | 55c | 97.3$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 45c | 78.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.11 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Under | 29c | 68.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Over | 45c | 58.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 56c | 53.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 56c | 52.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Over | 48c | 50.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…5144backed Over | 42c | 45.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -7.2wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0a66…a5d7backed Over | 42c | 45.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba8…5d91backed Over | 47c | 42.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 226 | 50.4%114 W · 112 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf9…3a59backed Over | 47c | 42.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 31c | 42.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 46c | 41.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…be97backed Under | 54c | 40.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Under | 43c | 39.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 167 | 34.7%58 W · 109 L | -17.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Over | 42c | 34.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Under | 55c | 32.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 40c | 29.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 134 | 39.6%53 W · 81 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc01d…2e79backed Under | 56c | 29.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 54c | 28.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e8…8435backed Under | 55c | 27.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Over | 48c | 27.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 271 | 46.9%127 W · 144 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…1700backed Over | 48c | 27.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 48c | 27.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Over | 45c | 26.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2e…d3cabacked Over | 44c | 23.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Under | 57c | 20.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 62c | 20.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de2…60acbacked Under | 54c | 19.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red SoxSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 13.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.