MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x814b415077932d8121934b3432bc58fb5a11a8e07fc058a36bfbe8bb2d0440f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $158,877
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $168,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,877 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bab…d304backed Under | 43c | 120,621$51,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,837.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Over | 57c | 80,000$45,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,400 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 56c | 14,997$8,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,579.62 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 53c | 3,827$2,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,797.08 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 57c | 3,531$2,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,522.99 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 57c | 3,523$2,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,522.62 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 57c | 3,382$1,922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,460.55 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 57c | 3,382$1,922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,460.55 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Over | 57c | 2,588$1,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.23 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e59…beeebacked Over | 53c | 2,200$1,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.89 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 58c | 2,145$1,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.72 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.99 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Over | 59c | 1,951$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.12 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 57c | 1,898$1,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.21 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 46c | 999.99$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 57c | 982.1$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.01 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf4…66bbbacked Under | 60c | 813.41$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 41c | 733.73$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.71 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 44c | 668.11$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.28 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Under | 47c | 628$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.16 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 57c | 513.68$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.88 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 46c | 326.08$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 45c | 291.95$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.58 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a7…d9f3backed Over | 55c | 221.14$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.51 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 40c | 191.2$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.34 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 45c | 183.6$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.62 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Under | 60c | 162.69$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 249 | 50.6%126 W · 123 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73aa…409bbacked Under | 43c | 160.32$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.94 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 45c | 148.05$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.68 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 45c | 139.68$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.86 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca6a…5304backed Under | 57c | 128.78$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Over | 53c | 117.61$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.27 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 47c | 97.07$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed Under | 64c | 94.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.96 | 171 | 59.1%101 W · 70 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 56c | 89.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 45c | 74.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 43c | 55.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 134 | 39.6%53 W · 81 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…c2e9backed Under | 38c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…bdaabacked Over | 58c | 50.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Over | 59c | 46.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 377 | 47.2%178 W · 199 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d0…1310backed Over | 59c | 46.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…0b9cbacked Under | 46c | 42.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Under | 43c | 40.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 43c | 35.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf804…8758backed Under | 43c | 33.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 52cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Over | 57c | 31.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 38c | 29.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 46c | 27.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed Over | 38c | 26.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…6c9bbacked Under | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05e…180bbacked Under | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc55d…405abacked Over | 57c | 23.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4acd…66d4backed Over | 58c | 23.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Over | 55c | 21.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 59c | 20.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 55c | 19.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97a8…078dbacked Over | 57c | 18.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 87 | 64.4%56 W · 31 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red SoxSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 13.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.