Token Launches · resolved market
Will USD0++ dip below $0.50 before February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3372139b4e82b32cb08bf9382fd95f7fa96aeff27128ad1dd2ec4de910f0bf97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $124,877
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,606
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,877 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe95f…1a57backed Yes | 1c | 17,023$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.16 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 1c | 12,826$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.44 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes | 2c | 8,263$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.75 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae61…4e32backed Yes | 2c | 7,012$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.09 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x130e…f8ffbacked Yes | 3c | 6,283$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 5,703$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…e8bcbacked Yes | 3c | 4,475$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6d…1780backed Yes | 2c | 4,472$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1074…0628backed Yes | 2c | 3,670$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…86b8backed Yes | 2c | 3,402$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x277b…c68dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,997$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdb…4304backed Yes | 2c | 1,415$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 2c | 1,300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 3c | 1,286$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 1,031$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 2c | 997.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +30%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 2c | 826.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 2c | 768.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 3cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 647.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 57 | 5.3%3 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 602.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…aba8backed Yes | 2c | 550$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00ea…f801backed Yes | 7c | 499.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.