Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33d36a8f309fbd4df69b8e3390b295ab078d3538f05797f89f28f96ac7ef39aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,515
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,515 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 2c | 825$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…3824backed Yes | 19c | 672.11$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 13c | 474.85$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.85 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 15c | 440.83$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.13 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 8c | 418.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 14c | 390.07$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.46 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26f8…459cbacked Yes | 8c | 381.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 11c | 313.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 16c | 292.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 15c | 265.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 19c | 261$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 16c | 254.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 9c | 235.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf79…7130backed Yes | 20c | 232.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 74c | 221.98$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 10c | 213.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 10c | 213$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 10c | 197.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 8c | 193.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 16c | 180$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 9c | 179.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 8c | 165.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 9c | 163.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 154.87$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 145.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 14c | 137.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 16c | 128.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…0fc4backed Yes | 14c | 126.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 13c | 113.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 12c | 109.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 13c | 92.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 91.8$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked Yes | 16c | 89.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 18c | 67.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 16c | 63.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 17c | 57.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d2…ff97backed Yes | 21c | 51.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 80c | 43.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed No | 80c | 37.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…e457backed No | 77c | 36.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 24.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 80c | 18.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.