Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x131a1764cc80d37a787e8770caaa938bdefb10c7622d96cd65c28ad614d57f00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,952$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x475b…caf2backed Yes | 0c | 4,160$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,585$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 29c | 1,392$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.95 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 1c | 1,093$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 8c | 500$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf2…ca49backed No | 67c | 433.99$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.22 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafc3…33e8backed Yes | 19c | 398.63$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.74 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 6c | 385.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 12c | 306.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 302.3$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 24c | 274.16$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.56 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 24c | 252.06$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.82 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf79…7130backed Yes | 23c | 235.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.07 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 222.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 74c | 219.32$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.13 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 22c | 182.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 27c | 175.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 160$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 157.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 19c | 154.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 67c | 150.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 26c | 148.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf270…3c46backed Yes | 36c | 144.22$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 134.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 132.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 37c | 131.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 64c | 124.68$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 79c | 108.18$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4419…19d7backed Yes | 32c | 99.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 68c | 92.08$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07de…d541backed Yes | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…24fabacked No | 72c | 87.35$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed No | 71c | 87.07$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed No | 65c | 84.56$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab46…0ee6backed Yes | 30c | 83.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 33c | 78.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 77c | 74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…712bbacked No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 65.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 31c | 57.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 64c | 56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…b7d3backed No | 74c | 54.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 27c | 50.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 31c | 50.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…1d8ebacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…5941backed Yes | 27c | 46.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked Yes | 32c | 46.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc13c…764dbacked Yes | 34c | 46.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 26c | 44.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 40c | 44.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4ea8backed Yes | 29c | 42.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xed63…5525backed Yes | 25c | 41.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2751…d0b1backed No | 69c | 39.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24b5…d8dbbacked Yes | 36c | 35.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…b01fbacked No | 63c | 34.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3313…92adbacked Yes | 34c | 33.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 65c | 33.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…7c82backed No | 67c | 33.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 31c | 32.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7e…13d2backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc76…be7fbacked Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 72c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 64c | 27.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 72c | 27.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d7…618cbacked No | 67c | 27.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb673…b674backed No | 68c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 68c | 25.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe03c…c61bbacked No | 70c | 23.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 23.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…7f8abacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x746d…2db5backed No | 72c | 19.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 69c | 19.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ea…8ed1backed No | 63c | 19.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 67c | 18.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 18.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 15.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 71c | 15.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.