Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cc1f2f5d90bd5ec7b7e690528726ad6f4a9e8822261d008b22e9aab86be0dd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 65c | 1,214$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.88 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf2…ca49backed Yes | 64c | 1,087$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.71 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 49c | 546.73$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.49 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 3c | 459.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 14c | 414.46$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked No | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.87 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 393.24$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.98 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 77c | 373.22$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.33 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 55c | 346.84$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.49 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked No | 5c | 328.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 77c | 305$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 64c | 294.14$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.52 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 8c | 287.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 26c | 274$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.27 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 35c | 257.24$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.18 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked No | 56c | 251.66$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.88 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 30c | 232.08$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2840…ae07backed No | 20c | 230$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf79…7130backed Yes | 44c | 225.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.14 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63d2…9e97backed No | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 20c | 192.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 180.17$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed No | 26c | 174.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf270…3c46backed Yes | 39c | 161.51$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.99 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…b01fbacked No | 59c | 149.62$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.28 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904c…4172backed No | 53c | 148.34$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.62 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 146.71$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 39c | 141$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 49c | 135$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.85 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 36c | 132.02$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 29c | 111.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a78…29d3backed No | 59c | 109.63$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c000backed Yes | 29c | 102.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.38 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4419…19d7backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…0fc4backed Yes | 29c | 99.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.98 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2751…d0b1backed No | 28c | 93.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9898…0a7dbacked Yes | 46c | 92.81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.12 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 89.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.64 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…3824backed No | 28c | 88.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 83.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 29c | 78.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 62c | 77.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 40c | 69.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 65c | 67.79$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked No | 47c | 66.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 28c | 66.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 39c | 65.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 40c | 64.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 79c | 64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 63.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 23c | 57.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59c1…12cebacked Yes | 30c | 54.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 47c | 52.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 60c | 51.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 40c | 51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 50.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb1…6be9backed No | 61c | 49.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 53c | 43.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 72c | 42.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…9899backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…53d0backed No | 36c | 36.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 70c | 36.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24b5…d8dbbacked Yes | 39c | 36.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…6884backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9217…076abacked No | 36c | 31.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 65c | 30.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb673…b674backed No | 64c | 30.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…fc3fbacked No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…202cbacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e1…77debacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 75c | 28.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87d9…5f20backed No | 48c | 27.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 58c | 26.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 57c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 80c | 22.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x746d…2db5backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 70c | 20.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca5e…4a1cbacked No | 53c | 19.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.