Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33db85ea9661adc8e466ffe21ea857978b191136d4a7d9902c821f70fe03721f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb8a…865bbacked Yes | 58c | 790$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +1,119.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…6fa4backed Yes | 72c | 680$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb94d…4402backed No | 62c | 580$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1d…dc5ebacked No | 28c | 485$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3b…9d46backed Yes | 38c | 400$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef90…da0ebacked No | 41c | 360$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +116%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58dd…0ed1backed No | 37c | 340$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb2…fe3dbacked Yes | 38c | 335$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +125.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 14c | 319.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab2b…2ff0backed Yes | 39c | 290$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 11c | 290$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 40c | 265$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.95 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x937f…982dbacked No | 42c | 250$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x159a…bc5ebacked No | 62c | 240$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbfd…2449backed No | 41c | 235$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8402…bb90backed No | 41c | 215$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.85 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53a5…a537backed Yes | 59c | 210$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30b…1adfbacked Yes | 59c | 205$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbc…1054backed No | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.54per pick | 47cpaid | +132.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf29e…1b8fbacked Yes | 59c | 190$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbee7…f1e7backed Yes | 63c | 165$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e23…99d7backed No | 42c | 165$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…9233backed Yes | 72c | 165$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 40c | 163.86$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.78 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0641…1985backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x740d…ecb6backed Yes | 72c | 150$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6256…3c82backed No | 41c | 150$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 64c | 149.12$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | -14.8wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…fb43backed No | 28c | 140$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +234.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87a3…dad3backed No | 42c | 135$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…3a54backed Yes | 59c | 130$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +355.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2af…e23ebacked No | 61c | 130$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58e5…7eb6backed Yes | 63c | 130$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bb…4414backed Yes | 63c | 115$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc013…554bbacked No | 61c | 105$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc15d…be4abacked No | 42c | 105$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 37c | 102$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe801…564bbacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c1…e8b0backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed No | 57c | 96.6$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.77 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0e…b3f3backed No | 62c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x360a…4f30backed Yes | 63c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa94e…c540backed Yes | 58c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd471…174fbacked No | 61c | 75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +150%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x653c…a02abacked Yes | 41c | 73.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x994f…d982backed Yes | 63c | 70$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc6…52c6backed Yes | 71c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x324a…5c0ebacked Yes | 59c | 65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff41…6699backed Yes | 38c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed No | 62c | 64.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa778…6a58backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x144d…f0f2backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2e…86babacked Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ad…f02dbacked Yes | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9995…f5f4backed Yes | 59c | 55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…5408backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6072…fb46backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133f…b79abacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd803…42edbacked Yes | 59c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ba…e172backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d38…1125backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e74…93bcbacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 40cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfef5…d961backed No | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b6…5bcebacked No | 62c | 30.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…87a2backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…a8babacked No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1022…e9c1backed Yes | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2a…3df2backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70d0…d2abbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 48°F or below on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 59°F or higher on March 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.