Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 59°F or higher on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4efd83e998d98f6d19c3f598931a9b733e725e0c803bb3d368a974453e6ee827
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 1c | 3,214$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 66c | 2,157$1,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.93 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 1,612$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,537.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9230…22a2backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,539.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb56b…a2d2backed Yes | 3c | 988.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.97per pick | 3cpaid | +3,009.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 6c | 801.76$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.21 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ad…7a9bbacked Yes | 4c | 795$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.41 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +353.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8a…865bbacked Yes | 4c | 760$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +1,119.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 7c | 693$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.73 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb9…1e9abacked Yes | 4c | 670$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,172.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…3a54backed Yes | 5c | 650$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +355.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 6c | 536.68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.12 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf78d…6fb5backed Yes | 75c | 411.22$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.16 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 5c | 400$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.5 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 8c | 322.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.58 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 5c | 229.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.64 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 15c | 74.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc68…47bdbacked No | 60c | 37.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed No | 73c | 24.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7b76backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 75cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 59°F or higher on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 48°F or below on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.