Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9446aa1668190fb9f1fbf415281b3c0b942ae790a224df22d2dfaad0f2ed3dd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 24c | 690$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.12 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 16c | 343.48$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…8995backed Yes | 18c | 340$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 28cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f20…438cbacked Yes | 31c | 335$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd7…9280backed Yes | 31c | 310$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08d0…b768backed No | 69c | 235$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +135.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeecc…7cbebacked Yes | 18c | 235$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…44a9backed Yes | 31c | 220$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e92…77d2backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…75e2backed No | 69c | 185$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee6…693abacked Yes | 20c | 170.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x653c…a02abacked Yes | 24c | 157.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 11c | 155$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.5 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 13c | 125$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x78b6…5bcebacked Yes | 19c | 108.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4024…35ccbacked Yes | 18c | 105$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd2…f20ebacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x649d…88afbacked No | 69c | 95$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e23…99d7backed Yes | 18c | 95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…e665backed Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…9424backed No | 69c | 85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64fc…6815backed No | 69c | 85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 19c | 76.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 69c | 74.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 19c | 68.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 61c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…e75bbacked Yes | 34c | 59.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf827…d4cdbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5940…77e0backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 80c | 45.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x287d…8410backed Yes | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 28c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb668…fb51backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x740e…fff3backed No | 70c | 30.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6072…fb46backed No | 68c | 27.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ac…f57dbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd933…9e40backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 48°F or below on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 59°F or higher on March 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.