Tennis · resolved market
Will Casper Ruud reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x340e326a4b77bec298738272796b9e949a2922e8ec6e049b09e0faa8aef5d583
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc291…0220backed Yes | 7c | 550$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked No | 48c | 260.24$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.53 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 43c | 205.67$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.17 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…8284backed Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…783ebacked Yes | 53c | 198.24$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.75 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 41cpaid | -75%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69bb…0f5cbacked Yes | 51c | 189$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.17 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed No | 47c | 159$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.56 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed Yes | 52c | 142$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.63 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf541…315ebacked Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa486…25d4backed Yes | 40c | 52.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +12.2wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +399.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2b…3ddabacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x582c…d9c6backed Yes | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed Yes | 50c | 22.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…eb35backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Casper Ruud reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?this page
- Will Alex de Minaur reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?No won
- Will Alexander Bublik reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?Yes won
- Will Alexander Zverev reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?Yes won
- Will Andrey Rublev reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?No won
- Will Arthur Fils reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?No won
- Will Ben Shelton reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?No won
- Will Cameron Norrie reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?No won
- Will Carlos Alcaraz reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?Yes won
- Will Daniil Medvedev reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?No won
- Will Frances Tiafoe reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?Yes won
- Will Holger Rune reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?No won
- Will Hubert Hurkacz reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?No won
- Will Jack Draper reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?No won
- Will Jannik Sinner reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?Yes won
- Will Karen Khachanov reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?No won
- Will Lorenzo Musetti reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?Yes won
- Will Novak Djokovic reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?Yes won
- Will Taylor Fritz reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?No won
- Will Tommy Paul reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.