Tennis · resolved market
Will Lorenzo Musetti reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x544ca081cab762774a37562fa13851b9928238642a98cc3145a90409069313c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3257…eb53backed No | 43c | 32,537$13,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,990.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…d224backed Yes | 57c | 32,537$18,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,990.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95a4…d579backed No | 37c | 12,197$4,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,488.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Yes | 66c | 3,000$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 607 | 53.7%326 W · 281 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 15c | 1,918$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.29 | 143 | 45.5%65 W · 78 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 64c | 1,134$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.97 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 56c | 999.61$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.58 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…6128backed No | 37c | 995.08$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.68 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331a…d80ebacked Yes | 59c | 831.6$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.6 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa486…25d4backed Yes | 60c | 641.22$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.67 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +12.9wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +388.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 61c | 630$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.64 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 16c | 564.8$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.84 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed No | 37c | 456$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.64 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69bb…0f5cbacked Yes | 58c | 350$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3124…014bbacked No | 23c | 337.96$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.67 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…e93fbacked No | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…ccb8backed Yes | 69c | 290.26$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked No | 47c | 259.01$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.38 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x288e…9ca7backed Yes | 63c | 241$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd073…b757backed Yes | 62c | 223.41$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.52 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -6.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…b0ccbacked Yes | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…783ebacked No | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 41cpaid | -75%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd60d…57bfbacked Yes | 69c | 170$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked Yes | 69c | 162.62$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.08 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +37%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed Yes | 69c | 158$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.77 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 36c | 133.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 29c | 119.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 381 | 47%179 W · 202 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 71c | 71.69$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb566…96d0backed Yes | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 28c | 62.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 227 | 23.8%54 W · 173 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 65c | 62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Yes | 52c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 224 | 45.1%101 W · 123 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe26f…71fabacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 42c | 34.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffab…762cbacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…89b1backed No | 34c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206c…f409backed Yes | 68c | 27.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f14…68c5backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lorenzo Musetti reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?this page
- Will Alex de Minaur reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?No won
- Will Alexander Bublik reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?Yes won
- Will Alexander Zverev reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?Yes won
- Will Andrey Rublev reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?No won
- Will Arthur Fils reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?No won
- Will Ben Shelton reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?No won
- Will Cameron Norrie reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?No won
- Will Carlos Alcaraz reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?Yes won
- Will Casper Ruud reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?No won
- Will Daniil Medvedev reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?No won
- Will Frances Tiafoe reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?Yes won
- Will Holger Rune reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?No won
- Will Hubert Hurkacz reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?No won
- Will Jack Draper reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?No won
- Will Jannik Sinner reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?Yes won
- Will Karen Khachanov reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?No won
- Will Novak Djokovic reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?Yes won
- Will Taylor Fritz reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?No won
- Will Tommy Paul reach the quarterfinals of the French Open?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.