Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34327fa5e6f715af8da77e3edb14d6e91c1c4ae089d0a84fceed52e24c8dbd83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,946
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,946 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 38c | 354.23$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 41c | 299.3$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.58 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 41c | 255.58$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.06 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 44c | 249.8$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.62 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 238.18$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 40c | 196.22$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.06 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 70c | 193.95$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.67 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 59c | 192.65$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.91 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 39c | 167$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.83 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 61c | 160.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.21 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1928backed No | 59c | 147.92$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.27 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…8723backed Yes | 41c | 143.42$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.99 | 45 | 86.7%39 W · 6 L | +16.1wins | +0.36per pick | 51cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 59c | 141.55$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.18 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 132.55$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.98 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 28c | 128.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 44c | 125.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.7 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa133…5fdcbacked Yes | 45c | 124.33$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.74 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 32c | 112.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec4f…9b0cbacked Yes | 56c | 111.68$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0a…5270backed Yes | 41c | 94.2$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 43c | 86.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 42c | 81.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 62c | 61.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 39c | 53.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 39c | 51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 53c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 67c | 49.88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 45c | 49.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b0…7219backed Yes | 42c | 47.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…263dbacked No | 62c | 46.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 59c | 46.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 65c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 55c | 42.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc8…6d81backed Yes | 46c | 40.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 40.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9c…e333backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…14d7backed Yes | 77c | 38.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 36c | 37.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2093…758cbacked Yes | 39c | 36.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe537…a0cfbacked Yes | 57c | 33.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 34c | 31.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 59c | 31.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…1075backed Yes | 38c | 31.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…8ca0backed Yes | 70c | 29.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 36c | 28.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0173…d05dbacked No | 37c | 28.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 25.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e6…6779backed No | 60c | 23.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 66c | 22.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x553a…0c2bbacked No | 59c | 20.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…129dbacked No | 72c | 19.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 52c | 19.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5170…b6b8backed No | 62c | 18.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a38…16a5backed Yes | 57c | 18.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…f366backed Yes | 64c | 18.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 77c | 17.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 63c | 16.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 18°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C or higher on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.