Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x343e67d5b603958e16020a9b97e4dd441662cd1ede0bbf23fcdfaa1cca069199
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 2c | 2,498$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,447.42 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 31c | 1,222$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.27 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 4c | 1,079$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,037.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4266…ffacbacked No | 57c | 839.09$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.04 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 636.54$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.47 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x846b…63b6backed Yes | 3c | 591.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.31 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 62c | 544.54$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.16 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.4 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 24c | 495.37$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.76 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 480.09$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 26c | 374.6$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.53 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 58c | 361.2$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.14 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 9c | 332.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.85 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 45c | 284.1$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.79 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 37c | 250$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 27c | 225.03$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.31 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 19c | 203.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.55 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 78c | 198.78$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.67 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 145.43$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 16c | 137.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.82 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d64…e3fdbacked No | 70c | 135$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.93 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 51c | 129.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.71 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 34c | 124.56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.76 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 120$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 118.78$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 23c | 100.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.6 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked No | 35c | 99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc4…4d11backed Yes | 48c | 92.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.61 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…c70dbacked No | 53c | 91.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x165f…d7c0backed No | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 39c | 85.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked No | 64c | 78.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf099…c6d1backed No | 59c | 78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 68c | 77.77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 60c | 77.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 78c | 76.74$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 23c | 73.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.22 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 68c | 73.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe412…4356backed Yes | 35c | 59.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 43c | 59.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 50c | 57.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 53c | 39.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 78c | 38.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 57c | 36.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 70c | 35.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes | 70c | 35.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed Yes | 70c | 34.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 37c | 33.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 45c | 29.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 67c | 27.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb5…0f28backed Yes | 78c | 25.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 44c | 25.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 50c | 24.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a4…0a91backed Yes | 62c | 24.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.