Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a395a4052b9a042ba539e59ee0f04ba99e143175e60d2e89dd3c66fb9cb345b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x165f…d7c0backed Yes | 2c | 1,210$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 1,093$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.89 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 35c | 546.63$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.87 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 19c | 482.42$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.66 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 443.07$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.62 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…17f4backed Yes | 42c | 346.53$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.96 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 75c | 287.9$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.23 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 275.36$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 52c | 268.52$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 264.94$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.15 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b3…b220backed Yes | 17c | 222.39$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 45c | 205.68$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.13 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 203.58$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.13 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 19c | 196.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 180.22$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 26c | 176.09$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 29c | 162.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 43c | 160.8$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.9 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 156.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 26c | 148.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 49c | 147.63$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.81 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 62c | 147$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.98 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 146.39$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 66c | 129.85$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 75c | 120.29$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 79c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 51c | 117.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.33 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 52c | 114.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.87 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 112.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 66c | 108.35$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 27c | 105$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…182cbacked Yes | 45c | 102.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 17c | 100.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc8…adf7backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec6…20ffbacked No | 71c | 99.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f6…21d4backed Yes | 20c | 97.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 65c | 95.55$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 17c | 83.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 18c | 83.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 20c | 76.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 22c | 76.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 35c | 74.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 26c | 73.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 20c | 71.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes | 22c | 68.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed No | 61c | 66.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 30c | 64.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 57c | 60.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 60.14$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6674…7efbbacked Yes | 24c | 60.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 57.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa39c…1d84backed Yes | 26c | 57.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 33cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 27c | 56.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 35c | 56.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 47c | 52.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…90edbacked Yes | 21c | 52.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7419…594abacked Yes | 22c | 51.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…fc9bbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 39c | 49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked No | 61c | 48.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked No | 60c | 48.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 28c | 45.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 25c | 44.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 75c | 40.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 79c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 43c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 45c | 34.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 34.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 76c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 57c | 33.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 78c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 36c | 32.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 76c | 30.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 76c | 30.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 76c | 29.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 29.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…faadbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 65c | 23.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 68c | 21.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 16.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 76c | 16.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 77c | 15.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.