Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa483587761048d1b5062763e6e2026f5ae893fb1b35c392c6aea098662546f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 1c | 2,785$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 19c | 887.21$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.93 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 80c | 808.6$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.16 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 23c | 758.22$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.54 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 24c | 338.7$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.29 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 27c | 251.45$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.91 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 76c | 250$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 74c | 230.56$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.89 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 24c | 211.32$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b7…223abacked Yes | 24c | 209.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 30cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 201$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 78c | 199.98$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…17f4backed Yes | 32c | 188.06$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 24c | 172.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…d271backed Yes | 24c | 166.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 160.74$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed No | 76c | 155.78$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 19c | 149.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 21c | 144.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 125.19$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 21c | 125$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 123.7$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 120.4$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 23c | 100.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 74c | 91$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 20c | 90.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 85.52$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 22c | 84.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 76c | 81.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 81.91$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 74c | 73.34$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…90edbacked Yes | 22c | 72.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 76c | 70.02$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 24c | 63.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 21c | 63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 60.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 23c | 59.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 75c | 59.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 73c | 57.93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 57.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 57.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 22c | 54.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc4…4d11backed No | 76c | 51.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 76c | 47.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6809…eae7backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 38.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 73c | 34.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…f6a5backed No | 67c | 29.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 77c | 26.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 67c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x846b…63b6backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…faadbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 75c | 23.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 79c | 20.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…66f7backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 73c | 18.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 78c | 16.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 76c | 16.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 80c | 15.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 74c | 15.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.