Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97c167349cf5a080b5c6a037f54aa8416262064eb8390a84abaa9b8e28008c04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,947
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4266…ffacbacked Yes | 1c | 6,222$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x165f…d7c0backed Yes | 2c | 1,165$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 8c | 694.26$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.16 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 576.76$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.91 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 6c | 490.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 52c | 338.89$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.07 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 12c | 314.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 264.8$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.3 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 49c | 247.67$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.09 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 13c | 179.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 13c | 171.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 8c | 170.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 7c | 166$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 162.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 57c | 153.19$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.62 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 41c | 121.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 43c | 120.71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 102.57$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 10c | 102.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 52c | 101.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc8…adf7backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 46c | 99.44$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3739…6adabacked Yes | 12c | 96.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 94$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 66c | 87.63$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 75.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 53c | 73.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 36c | 71.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 37c | 69.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 71c | 68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 25c | 67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 41c | 66.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 43c | 66.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 29c | 60.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 60.13$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 57c | 57.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1655…08e1backed No | 46c | 55.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 55c | 50.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 67c | 49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 48c | 47.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 23c | 44.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…17f4backed Yes | 48c | 44.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 47c | 44.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 33c | 39.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 38c | 38.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…faadbacked Yes | 53c | 38.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 52c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 46c | 36.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 34c | 35.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…3de3backed No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 54c | 31.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 51c | 28.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 47c | 23.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 50c | 23.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 63c | 20.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 73c | 20.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f21…8af5backed No | 78c | 19.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…8f39backed No | 78c | 12.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.