Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3451dec17a167e2cd24a36deca3d746fc95714cdc8a743bfb3478be45622831e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,170
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 13c | 650.47$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.56 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 27c | 626.89$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.54 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 544.23$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.36 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 59c | 309.06$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.31 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked No | 75c | 308.93$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.25 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 5c | 280.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 72c | 233.97$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.35 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 23c | 219.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 26c | 207.53$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.92 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed No | 9c | 199.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 185.74$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 73c | 179.55$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.35 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 73c | 159.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.79 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 158.85$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.91 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 154.35$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 75c | 132.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 18c | 131.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.02 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 15c | 111.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.78 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.1 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa434…cf75backed Yes | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.99 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 73c | 89.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.76 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 73c | 89.22$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ff…64f5backed No | 77c | 88.96$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 28c | 74.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.78 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 14c | 73.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 71.12$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.63 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 15c | 70.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 72c | 57.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 29c | 52.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 51.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…ce5abacked Yes | 30c | 50.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8220…2d1ebacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 47.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 74c | 44.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 28c | 42.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd3…bee3backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 71c | 39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 37.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 53c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 71c | 35.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed No | 35c | 31.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 24.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 73c | 23.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 73c | 20.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c8…317dbacked No | 76c | 20.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe412…4356backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…fa69backed No | 76c | 18.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed No | 69c | 16.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 70c | 16.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.