Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x347105df5db02512db4be626ca35551147188eae2274b6e489fc173bc69c6fa2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 43c | 2,187$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,247.66 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 410.82$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.64 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 53c | 387.54$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.91 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 13c | 226.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 47c | 222$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.66 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 47c | 219.6$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.43 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes | 58c | 206.65$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.65 | 117 | 24.8%29 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…b542backed No | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 56c | 136.45$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.74 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 39c | 124$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.64 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 120$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 117.04$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 51c | 116.19$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 47c | 106.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.63 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 47c | 106$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.34 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 49c | 97.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 79.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 33c | 77.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 60c | 59.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 47c | 58.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 53c | 55.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…a1b7backed No | 46c | 53.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabcd…6771backed Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fd…15a0backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 48c | 41.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b82…73c3backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 46c | 39.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…167ebacked Yes | 48c | 39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7323…1affbacked No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1599…c7f8backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3811…736cbacked No | 59c | 33.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -4.4wins | -0.44per pick | 64cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x78e9…eac3backed No | 59c | 33.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 47c | 31.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…68c9backed Yes | 48c | 28.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +159.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e3…6863backed Yes | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on July 5?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on July 5?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on July 5?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.