MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x348e802d80d12d37b0ad9b57d4a3b17f3ee9c0f6fa7732d8f923b4fe2fec4b6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,591
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,591 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 57c | 12,032$6,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,195.94 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 10,537$4,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,428.88 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 42c | 1,415$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.03 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 53c | 828.73$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.28 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 2c | 801.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 53c | 597.04$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.59 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 61c | 494$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.24 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…0c11backed Over | 67c | 450.09$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.09 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 25c | 399.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f55…8956backed Under | 46c | 362.98$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.97 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 35c | 331.23$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.7 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 33c | 251.65$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.04 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0254…33eabacked Over | 71c | 145$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.22per pick | 67cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 45c | 120$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…8d0bbacked Under | 46c | 108.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8443…2988backed Under | 69c | 96.23$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.4 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 75c | 80.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under | 46c | 73.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 44c | 60.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Under | 33c | 58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Over | 66c | 52.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Under | 36c | 41.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 178 | 42.7%76 W · 102 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 60c | 39.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 36c | 31.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Under | 63c | 29.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x848f…612fbacked Over | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 47c | 24.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 50c | 21.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd6…3806backed Under | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 177 | 52.5%93 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 12.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.