MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d8dd8ec475b543ee5e9b44e3ef8f6ed79b0217a380f826e18f88caf0ede96a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Baltimore Orioles, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Seattle Mariners | 62c | 4,000$2,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,479.99 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 68c | 3,799$2,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,232.68 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners | 6c | 3,294$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.33 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 2,523$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,557.48 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204a…a4eabacked Seattle Mariners | 8c | 2,204$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.83 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +241.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 1,477$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.25 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Baltimore Orioles | 75c | 1,235$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.22 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Seattle Mariners | 54c | 999$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.46 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Seattle Mariners | 4c | 976$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 926.2$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.01 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Seattle Mariners | 10c | 592$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Baltimore Orioles | 25c | 300$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 121 | 38%46 W · 75 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Seattle Mariners | 75c | 300$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 248.19$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.17 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Seattle Mariners | 54c | 244$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.76 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcae9…fc54backed Baltimore Orioles | 25c | 200.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.6 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…e934backed Seattle Mariners | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 67 | 68.7%46 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Seattle Mariners | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Seattle Mariners | 31c | 126.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Seattle Mariners | 31c | 121.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 117.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.36 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Seattle Mariners | 50c | 116.81$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Baltimore Orioles | 68c | 90.33$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Seattle Mariners | 31c | 82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 61.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 59.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 57.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Seattle Mariners | 58c | 50.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed Seattle Mariners | 55c | 49.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 111 | 55.9%62 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Seattle Mariners | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 41.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 37.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Seattle Mariners | 70c | 35.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Seattle Mariners | 46c | 31.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Seattle Mariners | 76c | 27.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96db…499fbacked Seattle Mariners | 59c | 18.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd6…3806backed Seattle Mariners | 58c | 17.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 177 | 52.5%93 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Seattle Mariners | 60c | 17.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 12.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.