MLB · resolved market

Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc414c7017b16d9c0f365a5816d0ee4d8b6c18912ca2d78db7955d02e19099e66

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jun 10, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $149,949
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $153,655

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,949 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Under	12c	59,799$7,339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,339	8,192	46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L	+38.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed Over	53c	28,438$15,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,437.62	241	46.1%111 W · 130 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under	47c	17,094$7,997 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,996.97	11,519	52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L	+213.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b88…8f33backed Over	52c	13,077$6,821 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,255.81	448	51.6%231 W · 217 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under	48c	9,833$4,720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,719.67	10,979	51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L	+139.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Over	56c	9,279$5,196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,082.68	1,414	49.5%700 W · 714 L	-4.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Under	44c	7,777$3,422 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,421.88	479	53.2%255 W · 224 L	+18.0wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under	43c	2,259$981 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$981.5	6,999	50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L	+2.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Under	1c	1,949$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.34	3,219	51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L	+148.2wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under	53c	1,044$555 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$555.21	3,792	45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L	-5.5wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8e6…d471backed Over	57c	1,000$570 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$430	36	55.6%20 W · 16 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Over	55c	984.3$541 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$442.94	604	51%308 W · 296 L	-2.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Over	52c	864.32$450 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$413.86	5,234	56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L	+130.4wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Under	44c	853$378 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$378.37	2,375	47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L	-13.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed Under	50c	803.75$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	257	51.8%133 W · 124 L	+5.5wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over	61c	771.55$470 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$301.26	2,093	51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L	+44.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78b0…9f1abacked Under	46c	767.02$353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$353.38	390	47.4%185 W · 205 L	-11.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over	56c	684.03$383 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300.97	4,553	49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L	-9.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9542…4295backed Under	56c	600$336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$336	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Over	56c	600$336 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$264	1,884	53%998 W · 886 L	+16.4wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under	43c	597.06$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.72	8,403	47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L	+76.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Over	53c	500$265 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$235.5	2,149	50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L	+28.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under	56c	449.95$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.73	8,594	52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L	+508.9wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x93a0…6623backed Over	57c	350.88$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150.88	398	46.5%185 W · 213 L	-16.9wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Over	56c	342.28$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150.6	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Over	45c	218.23$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.29	507	48.7%247 W · 260 L	-17.2wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7885…1173backed Under	20c	212.23$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.67	133	57.9%77 W · 56 L	+5.0wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Over	57c	210.52$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.52	963	49%472 W · 491 L	-39.3wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Over	56c	205.09$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.24	878	50.5%443 W · 435 L	+12.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Under	8c	202.82$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.15	1,928	17.2%331 W · 1,597 L	-320.9wins	-0.17per pick	34cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	32-0.16 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Under	44c	200.52$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.92	1,218	55.6%677 W · 541 L	+94.9wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Under	45c	191$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.33	997	44.1%440 W · 557 L	-38.0wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed Over	57c	175.44$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.44	34	61.8%21 W · 13 L	+3.5wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x18b6…babfbacked Under	73c	139.73$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	318	49.7%158 W · 160 L	-8.7wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Under	44c	133.12$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.57	999	47.5%475 W · 524 L	-3.4wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	51c	131.9$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.3	12,328	46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L	-66.0wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Under	44c	120$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.4	1,062	49.2%523 W · 539 L	-11.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6136…96cbbacked Over	52c	113.19$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.85	41	53.7%22 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Under	44c	112.91$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.68	1,022	50.6%517 W · 505 L	+54.2wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b73…174ebacked Under	44c	108.16$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.4	106	49.1%52 W · 54 L	-5.1wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked Under	45c	106.08$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.74	105	59%62 W · 43 L	+6.4wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdaee…8559backed Under	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	158	48.7%77 W · 81 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed Over	57c	100$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43	142	60.6%86 W · 56 L	+9.3wins	+0.07per pick	54cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Under	54c	99.21$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.57	694	47.6%330 W · 364 L	-9.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Under	44c	97$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.93	2,947	51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L	-34.0wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc254…c435backed Under	55c	90.61$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	110	44.5%49 W · 61 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e6f…cb64backed Over	56c	89.29$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.29	82	51.2%42 W · 40 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x31ac…2a39backed Over	56c	85.54$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.64	47	25.5%12 W · 35 L	-6.9wins	-0.15per pick	40cpaid	-44%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed Under	37c	74.4$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.65	1,445	50.3%727 W · 718 L	-27.6wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54a2…1d43backed Under	44c	73.08$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.16	59	42.4%25 W · 34 L	+3.8wins	+0.06per pick	36cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under	19c	70$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.3	1,728	50.4%871 W · 857 L	+57.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed Over	54c	64.3$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.58	141	58.9%83 W · 58 L	+8.8wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5965…d26dbacked Over	52c	63.77$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.64	164	50.6%83 W · 81 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Under	49c	61.93$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.35	1,797	50.4%906 W · 891 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over	52c	57.69$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.69	1,279	51.2%655 W · 624 L	-19.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under	43c	51.17$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	3,841	42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Under	44c	45.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	192	52.6%101 W · 91 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a98…639dbacked Over	57c	43.86$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.86	309	60.2%186 W · 123 L	+16.8wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under	28c	40$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.07	2,546	45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L	-74.1wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-15%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fcd…724dbacked Over	57c	40$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.2	102	49%50 W · 52 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Over	29c	38.36$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.24	1,083	56.3%610 W · 473 L	+13.7wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeff4…2aa4backed Over	53c	37.25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.57	133	53.4%71 W · 62 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Under	68c	34.96$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.85	2,223	55.4%1,231 W · 992 L	+73.9wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfec7…b4b2backed Over	56c	33.12$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.57	25	68%17 W · 8 L	+3.0wins	+0.12per pick	56cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under	37c	30.81$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	1,194	29%346 W · 848 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over	56c	30$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.2	619	48.6%301 W · 318 L	+5.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba8c…e77dbacked Over	80c	30$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6	63	77.8%49 W · 14 L	+10.0wins	+0.16per pick	62cpaid	+93.1%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0xaf3e…5d6cbacked Over	52c	30$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.4	35	40%14 W · 21 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x557a…9b21backed Over	46c	28.52$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.52	32	37.5%12 W · 20 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under	51c	25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.75	707	37.6%266 W · 441 L	+24.5wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Over	52c	23.59$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.29	705	46.8%330 W · 375 L	-13.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Under	62c	22.19$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.84	726	55.4%402 W · 324 L	+40.2wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda54…b8a1backed Under	55c	20.34$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.16	284	56.7%161 W · 123 L	+11.5wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9555…889abacked Over	57c	20.28$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.72	1,001	57.3%574 W · 427 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee16…16a2backed Over	52c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.6	40	50%20 W · 20 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over	73c	16$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.37	91	65.9%60 W · 31 L	+11.1wins	+0.12per pick	54cpaid	+20.7%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5this page
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 12.5Under won
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event