Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34aaa4b765b2a0927faf60d78868b47839c7003299fea4f4b675d5a429749d01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 10c | 535.14$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 34c | 281.69$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.97 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…ca72backed Yes | 35c | 196.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.63 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 78c | 191.52$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 183$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.89 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 60c | 157.55$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.23 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 28c | 137.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 35c | 117.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 68c | 111.06$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 39c | 109.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 29c | 108.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 27c | 107.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 16c | 99.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 98.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 97.05$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 93.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 34c | 86.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 34c | 85.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 39c | 79.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 22c | 76.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 74.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d0…1284backed No | 68c | 71.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked Yes | 43c | 69.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 66.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 69c | 62.26$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 75c | 57.78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 64c | 57.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 27c | 56.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 62c | 54.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 38c | 52.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed No | 66c | 51.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 51.16$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 34c | 49.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 38c | 48.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 26c | 46.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 32c | 39.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…15e9backed No | 65c | 38.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 40c | 36.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 31c | 35.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 36c | 35.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed No | 73c | 34.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 73c | 32.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed No | 62c | 32.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 71c | 31.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 74c | 31.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 60c | 31.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 61c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 74c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 73c | 27.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 78c | 25.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 78c | 25.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 72c | 25.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 67c | 21.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 62c | 17.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 72c | 16.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…bd99backed No | 61c | 16.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C or higher on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.