Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16a414c7b8697f15297699659c8e0fbacf738698fe8d34bc5c652d1ec7037c0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 25c | 619.87$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 608.97$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 62c | 534.89$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.11 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 15c | 499.96$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.97 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15d0…1284backed Yes | 64c | 286.53$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.13 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedd0…8b94backed No | 78c | 257.48$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 13c | 257.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.65 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 16c | 255.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.53 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 22c | 248.64$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.26 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 78c | 229.29$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.81 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 228.48$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.96 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes | 38c | 223.18$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.97 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 72c | 208.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 28c | 157.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.96 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed Yes | 28c | 157.72$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.86 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 157.71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d44…e684backed Yes | 33c | 144.25$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 13c | 140$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed Yes | 29c | 139.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.79 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 72c | 138.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 138.16$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.19 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 21c | 137.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.68 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 24c | 137.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.23 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 33c | 134.61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.6 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 55c | 107.3$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.86 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 52c | 105.89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.36 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e03…f879backed Yes | 14c | 104.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 69c | 101.77$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.55 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 28c | 101.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 74c | 95.13$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.96 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 14c | 94.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.46 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 70c | 92.36$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.94 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 21c | 91.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.06 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 80c | 89.14$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 46c | 85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.32 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 27c | 83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 56c | 78.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 27c | 77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.28 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 76c | 76.76$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c52…1411backed Yes | 21c | 69.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.58 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 16c | 66.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.91 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 69c | 65.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 62c | 64.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…ae8abacked Yes | 17c | 63.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.77 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 49c | 63.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 41c | 63.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 50c | 61.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 56c | 59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 25c | 59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 73c | 51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 74c | 49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 46c | 48.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 66c | 45.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01d0…7b12backed No | 40c | 41.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 47c | 36.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 43c | 35.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 72c | 34.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 61c | 33.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 33.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 80c | 33.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed Yes | 61c | 32.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…ef46backed Yes | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 40c | 30.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 77c | 25.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 65c | 22.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…475bbacked Yes | 51c | 21.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 66c | 20.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6e…c21abacked Yes | 61c | 19.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 77c | 18.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc654…7249backed Yes | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…a8f6backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd60…1ae5backed Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C or higher on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.