Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C or higher on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x171b3e1c08dd5ed4846ac4c25247cb638fb0be48b4ae529e3e1d9bd9ac30b271
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,281
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,281 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 355.85$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 46c | 347.93$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.35 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 12c | 264.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 263$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.01 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 50c | 246.38$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.44 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 45c | 228.52$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.4 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 44c | 185.85$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.12 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 69c | 181.12$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.12 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 47c | 163.91$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.32 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed No | 64c | 156.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.83 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 32c | 154.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 61c | 145.2$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.16 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 54c | 129.45$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…fb20backed No | 56c | 129.36$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 107.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 43c | 104.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 53c | 104.29$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes | 39c | 98.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 44c | 97.48$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 61c | 94.49$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked No | 55c | 92.69$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 33c | 88.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08e8…c62ebacked Yes | 56c | 87.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 20c | 85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 54c | 82.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 48c | 80.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 51c | 79.51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed Yes | 47c | 78.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed No | 79c | 77.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 45c | 75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 68.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed Yes | 56c | 68.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…4785backed Yes | 52c | 68.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 44c | 68.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 47c | 63.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 73c | 61.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 68c | 56.82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 53c | 53.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b7…f18dbacked Yes | 25c | 51.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 51.16$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 67c | 48.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 29c | 42.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 58c | 41.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed No | 61c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 43c | 40.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 58c | 37.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 36.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 63c | 35.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 58c | 34.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 57c | 34.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 47c | 32.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 50c | 32.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 52c | 32.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked No | 56c | 31.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 50c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…e5c6backed Yes | 36c | 28.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 50c | 27.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 56c | 25.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c1…be67backed Yes | 49c | 24.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 34 | 88.2%30 W · 4 L | +7.2wins | +0.21per pick | 67cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 58c | 24.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 70c | 21.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…9e87backed No | 78c | 21.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 58c | 20.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf910…5912backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…ab7dbacked No | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C or higher on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.