CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Mindfreak vs Arcade Esports (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Oceania Cup #3 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34b2e8479174d22252b0eeea15aa48396013f9bb58297b6b284d7284e4326bff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arcade Esportsof Mindfreak, Arcade Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4c0…92d8backed Arcade Esports | 56c | 3,565$1,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,579.89 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Arcade Esports | 37c | 2,577$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,623.82 | 844 | 54.3%458 W · 386 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Arcade Esports | 42c | 1,377$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.78 | 6,501 | 42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L | -79.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb835…2e51backed Mindfreak | 63c | 763.11$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.33 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e4…2a20backed Mindfreak | 71c | 609.21$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.54 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31e6…a23ebacked Arcade Esports | 28c | 602.78$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.1 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2b…2de7backed Mindfreak | 72c | 550.59$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.43 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d1…6197backed Mindfreak | 63c | 545.46$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3952…c2b4backed Arcade Esports | 27c | 540.26$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.25 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Mindfreak | 57c | 539.26$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.79 | 7,990 | 50.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L | +180.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…387ebacked Arcade Esports | 43c | 513.38$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.46 | 291 | 54%157 W · 134 L | +17.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Mindfreak | 28c | 338.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.35 | 2,221 | 41.3%917 W · 1,304 L | -22.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ac…2a18backed Mindfreak | 63c | 335.87$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.6 | 251 | 47.8%120 W · 131 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Arcade Esports | 65c | 275.13$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.95 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…954ebacked Mindfreak | 62c | 267.94$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.12 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Arcade Esports | 43c | 261.32$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.46 | 4,099 | 51%2,091 W · 2,008 L | +74.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Mindfreak | 59c | 255.8$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.92 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6983…88c3backed Mindfreak | 63c | 251.43$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.4 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Mindfreak | 56c | 247.06$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.35 | 286 | 60.1%172 W · 114 L | +17.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c71…c0e5backed Arcade Esports | 28c | 246.47$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.55 | 373 | 46.1%172 W · 201 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfce…5c3ebacked Mindfreak | 63c | 215.12$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.52 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Mindfreak | 63c | 196.63$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.96 | 1,649 | 46.9%774 W · 875 L | -28.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3e…9120backed Mindfreak | 63c | 167.62$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 146 | 41.1%60 W · 86 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e70…caccbacked Arcade Esports | 59c | 165.32$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.78 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa920…ccfdbacked Mindfreak | 63c | 155.21$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Arcade Esports | 63c | 133.77$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 644 | 39.8%256 W · 388 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Arcade Esports | 69c | 133.47$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 1,051 | 57.2%601 W · 450 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x822b…61fdbacked Mindfreak | 63c | 127.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.18 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Mindfreak | 47c | 115.91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.53 | 472 | 60%283 W · 189 L | +31.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…ae72backed Arcade Esports | 35c | 114.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.22 | 288 | 52.1%150 W · 138 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…a8e5backed Mindfreak | 49c | 111.79$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3e…5bc0backed Arcade Esports | 44c | 109.87$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.55 | 153 | 58.2%89 W · 64 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Arcade Esports | 38c | 103.96$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.79 | 162 | 35.8%58 W · 104 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x179f…1ff2backed Arcade Esports | 58c | 100.43$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Arcade Esports | 46c | 99.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.98 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c94…5b86backed Arcade Esports | 38c | 99.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.86 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…adffbacked Arcade Esports | 29c | 98.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.32 | 140 | 46.4%65 W · 75 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1a…d790backed Mindfreak | 63c | 97.89$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.67 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e0…7349backed Mindfreak | 70c | 94.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Mindfreak | 65c | 92.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd18a…49bbbacked Mindfreak | 63c | 90.95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5583…1fbbbacked Mindfreak | 63c | 88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Arcade Esports | 40c | 85.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.89 | 202 | 50%101 W · 101 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Mindfreak | 20c | 77.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4b59…3aa6backed Arcade Esports | 30c | 71.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 853 | 58.3%497 W · 356 L | +60.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Arcade Esports | 42c | 67.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 5,580 | 47.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L | +47.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Arcade Esports | 66c | 65.05$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 1,397 | 52.4%732 W · 665 L | +30.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ac…47e6backed Arcade Esports | 49c | 60.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 681 | 72.2%492 W · 189 L | +120.9wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Mindfreak | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 815 | 51.7%421 W · 394 L | +26.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Arcade Esports | 36c | 53.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…54ddbacked Mindfreak | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 387 | 53.2%206 W · 181 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…f519backed Mindfreak | 67c | 49.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5d…b919backed Arcade Esports | 36c | 48.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Mindfreak | 59c | 47.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 1,109 | 50.5%560 W · 549 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2c…359fbacked Arcade Esports | 50c | 45.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Arcade Esports | 42c | 44.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 2,527 | 43.1%1,088 W · 1,439 L | +42.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Arcade Esports | 48c | 42.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 836 | 43.5%364 W · 472 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Arcade Esports | 40c | 40.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 750 | 48.4%363 W · 387 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Mindfreak | 64c | 36.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 2,605 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,234 L | +97.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…1c86backed Arcade Esports | 48c | 30.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Mindfreak | 62c | 29.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 328 | 45.1%148 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Arcade Esports | 37c | 28.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 421 | 49.6%209 W · 212 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd16e…0f4abacked Arcade Esports | 63c | 23.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Mindfreak | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 75 | 80%60 W · 15 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Mindfreak | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff88…601dbacked Mindfreak | 69c | 19.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Mindfreak | 70c | 18.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Mindfreak | 64c | 17.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 872 | 44.8%391 W · 481 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Mindfreak vs Arcade Esports (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Oceania Cup #3 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: Mindfreak vs Arcade Esports - Map 1 WinnerArcade Esports won
- Counter-Strike: Mindfreak vs Arcade Esports - Map 2 WinnerMindfreak won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.