World Politics · resolved market
Will Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah be the next President of Namibia?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34c917298ad25114995e20e0d32a56ab4e383649acdbd716db9d0c7a716ada03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked No | 1c | 8,980$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.31 | 110 | 0%0 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7304…0379backed No | 12c | 4,695$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.66 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc930…9ed4backed No | 19c | 3,764$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.69 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -93.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 1c | 2,150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 4c | 1,462$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.74 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 2c | 1,130$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73b7…9360backed No | 12c | 1,009$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.01 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked No | 2c | 781.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b7…b5dabacked No | 16c | 539.34$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 2c | 483.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked No | 7c | 456.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Yes | 80c | 397.33$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 15c | 375.12$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 8c | 371.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 76c | 319$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.16 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed No | 17c | 311.12$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.26 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed No | 15c | 270.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…781cbacked No | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed Yes | 76c | 222.03$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed No | 12c | 190$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa586…86f5backed Yes | 80c | 145.34$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6741…e578backed Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed No | 17c | 121.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa1…1928backed Yes | 70c | 118.85$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2767…886abacked No | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdc…6125backed Yes | 76c | 105.25$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a58…956fbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…3c93backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0f…b6d1backed No | 16c | 98.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba2…5008backed No | 32c | 92.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…94d6backed No | 22c | 91.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d42…f046backed Yes | 79c | 86.24$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +30%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…c7dabacked Yes | 76c | 77.24$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfe…cb69backed Yes | 78c | 60.04$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…375abacked Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…0705backed Yes | 80c | 43.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac5…b5a1backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd54e…6285backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…7f4fbacked Yes | 76c | 21.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…1186backed Yes | 77c | 20.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked Yes | 71c | 20.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked Yes | 80c | 20.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69df…2520backed Yes | 79c | 18.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…8035backed Yes | 76c | 16.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6028…61f1backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20c2…2300backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah be the next President of Namibia?this page
- Will Bernadus Swartbooi be the next President of Namibia?No won
- Will Henk Mudge be the next President of Namibia?No won
- Will McHenry Venaani be the next President of Namibia?No won
- Will Panduleni Itula be the next President of Namibia?No won
- Will another candidate be the next President of Namibia?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.