TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Athletics (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
St. Louis Cardinalsof Athletics, St. Louis Cardinals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,438
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,436

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,438 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2728…4f96backed St. Louis Cardinals33c606.06$200 inWon+$406.0653448.9%261 W · 273 L-1.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Athletics67c595.79$399 inLost-$399.182,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed St. Louis Cardinals26c586.62$153 inWon+$434.11,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Athletics74c573$424 inLost-$424.022,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Athletics73c287.69$211 inLost-$210.791,01447.7%484 W · 530 L-28.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked St. Louis Cardinals26c276.85$72 inWon+$204.8767444.1%297 W · 377 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Athletics75c200$150 inLost-$15072648.1%349 W · 377 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked St. Louis Cardinals25c142.67$36 inWon+$1072,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e45…39dabacked St. Louis Cardinals28c102.62$29 inWon+$73.8918547.6%88 W · 97 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Athletics72c102.62$74 inLost-$73.899,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Athletics73c100$73 inLost-$7337357.4%214 W · 159 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b3…4756backed St. Louis Cardinals28c51.82$15 inWon+$37.3113046.9%61 W · 69 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Athletics72c51.82$37 inLost-$37.311,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x389d…995fbacked St. Louis Cardinals27c50.53$14 inWon+$36.8913144.3%58 W · 73 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-0.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27cf…979abacked St. Louis Cardinals27c49.47$13 inWon+$36.1112049.2%59 W · 61 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Athletics26c46.22$12 inLost-$12.0261450.8%312 W · 302 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x26e4…56ecbacked St. Louis Cardinals30c43.7$13 inWon+$30.59333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3704…5487backed St. Louis Cardinals73c27.4$20 inWon+$7.415349.7%76 W · 77 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Athletics72c21.97$16 inLost-$15.7310,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.