MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8e2bd24fe13b580aa46127417450e0184b4770aaee940aa24dab8dfba506e56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 15c | 2,138$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,816.92 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked Over | 58c | 1,204$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.15 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 42c | 766.05$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.31 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 57c | 665.43$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Under | 9c | 550$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.5 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +59%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 41c | 389.23$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.94 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 15c | 263$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.55 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 42c | 211.31$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.56 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 40c | 200.7$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 42c | 172$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.44 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 37c | 165$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.95 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 63c | 144.44$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96a8…1932backed Under | 11c | 120.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +206.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Under | 15c | 101.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.25 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 27c | 99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…aba2backed Over | 79c | 95.34$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.14 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1301…2cf7backed Over | 56c | 87.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Over | 58c | 86.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb213…49e1backed Over | 77c | 78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.44 | 129 | 56.6%73 W · 56 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 43c | 75.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ad…a5cabacked Under | 61c | 75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 25c | 46.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6a…cbfbbacked Under | 43c | 44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 61c | 39.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 62c | 37.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x499c…2f8ebacked Over | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Over | 58c | 26.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 143 | 44.8%64 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 66c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b8…d4b3backed Over | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 64c | 20.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Over | 78c | 15.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a88…4e57backed Under | 73c | 15.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5this page
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Athletics won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. AthleticsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.