MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb71cb3a52c11f26002b84aff875e13aa9bd05985b21ef949b9e45a1ec9239dbb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,074
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,074 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 24c | 2,614$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,994.84 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 76c | 1,316$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 68c | 1,216$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.56 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 59c | 871.12$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.96 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 43c | 852$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.68 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 77c | 712.66$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.54 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked Over | 25c | 644.11$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.57 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 38c | 396$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.52 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 360.51$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.05 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 60c | 314.18$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.26 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 22c | 313.18$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.28 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 49c | 267.71$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.43 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Over | 23c | 201.42$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.12 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 61c | 184.11$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.23 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd68b…c39cbacked Over | 61c | 181.45$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 23c | 150$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.25 | 272 | 48.5%132 W · 140 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 59c | 147.21$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.53 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 47c | 132$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.04 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc26a…76a1backed Over | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 39c | 109.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Over | 23c | 109.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.12 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 51c | 108.53$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.73 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 52c | 98.3$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 37c | 97.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.19 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 76c | 75.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 33c | 72.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 56c | 66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b9…7a6bbacked Over | 23c | 62.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.82 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 70c | 62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 22c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…1d74backed Under | 61c | 56.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Over | 24c | 51.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 78c | 49.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 78c | 46.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 73c | 43.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 57c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 59c | 27.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 77c | 26.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 78c | 25.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 78c | 25.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 61c | 21.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41d8…7233backed Under | 62c | 17.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 78c | 15.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -5.3wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Under | 78c | 14.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Athletics won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. AthleticsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.