MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9731bccf9f90675296d587f0694494b703c4f1a0999875eafa2854a8ca272481
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof St. Louis Cardinals, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 72c | 3,869$2,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,785.1 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Athletics | 27c | 2,451$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,788.96 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 27c | 1,584$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.65 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Athletics | 37c | 1,108$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.04 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed St. Louis Cardinals | 73c | 950.68$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Athletics | 31c | 863$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.35 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Athletics | 59c | 780$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.8 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 498.05$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.9 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Athletics | 52c | 407.39$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.29 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 382.27$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.83 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ca…5d8dbacked Athletics | 36c | 286.49$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.33 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Athletics | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 667 | 48.7%325 W · 342 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Athletics | 37c | 150$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Athletics | 36c | 119.14$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.15 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Athletics | 64c | 106.34$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 97.42$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.21 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Athletics | 25c | 85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.85 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 78.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 78.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 77.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed St. Louis Cardinals | 26c | 77.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Athletics | 51c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 75c | 70$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…8f36backed Athletics | 75c | 62.54$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Athletics | 28c | 61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3323…f667backed Athletics | 39c | 56.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa151…03b0backed Athletics | 38c | 52.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6f…be20backed Athletics | 38c | 51.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 54c | 50.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Athletics | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletics | 36c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…c736backed Athletics | 66c | 34.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 179 | 51.4%92 W · 87 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaca…4b14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 20.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 18.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…1d74backed Athletics | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. AthleticsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.