Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x355848ee859091def94e9c30017ded6ade51046614719861a444ff96d9433db7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 380.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 55c | 378.42$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.05 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 295.69$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 51c | 257.1$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.2 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 17c | 234.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 33c | 206.93$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.64 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 59c | 205.91$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.02 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 198.59$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.04 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 43c | 139.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.21 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 43c | 124.6$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.9 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…68b0backed No | 53c | 107.53$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.46 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 35c | 104.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.22 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 41c | 101.88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.72 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 100.68$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…234ebacked No | 45c | 97.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.95 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 94.05$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.26 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 33c | 85.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed No | 26c | 76.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 55c | 55.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed No | 72c | 48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 51c | 39.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 33c | 37.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 36c | 35.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 40c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…733fbacked Yes | 49c | 32.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf0…0901backed Yes | 35c | 32.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dec…de48backed No | 70c | 31.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed No | 65c | 22.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…fa69backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 19.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 74c | 18.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C or higher on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.