Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C or higher on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3a0b106aaac7f587926c6abf1209d5a187708e858e0a8c32ea4de72ac5cecd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 29c | 1,059$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.67 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 413.93$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.41 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 152.19$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 152$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.57 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 71c | 147.31$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.72 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 17c | 137.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 122.69$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84e7…73c4backed Yes | 17c | 117.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…234ebacked Yes | 18c | 101.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed No | 73c | 80.17$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 15c | 72.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 71c | 69.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb5…3253backed No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 59.91$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 27c | 58.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 20c | 55.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 77c | 47.64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 26c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed No | 66c | 31.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 80c | 30.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 26.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc799…e4f6backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…3cc0backed No | 78c | 22.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 69 | 68.1%47 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 76c | 21.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 18.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C or higher on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on July 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.