TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,349
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,428

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,349 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x89dd…f662backed Boston Red Sox61c19,500$11,895 inLost-$11,8953735.1%13 W · 24 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa7a4…e371backed Toronto Blue Jays39c14,038$5,475 inWon+$8,563.161850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays39c9,908$3,855 inWon+$6,053.111,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Boston Red Sox61c7,777$4,744 inLost-$4,743.9647953.2%255 W · 224 L+18.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Toronto Blue Jays39c3,500$1,365 inWon+$2,1354,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Toronto Blue Jays39c1,271$496 inWon+$775.354,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57b1…4b99backed Boston Red Sox62c967.74$600 inLost-$60017546.9%82 W · 93 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Boston Red Sox61c473.01$289 inLost-$288.546,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Toronto Blue Jays38c167.5$64 inWon+$103.851,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6676…22f3backed Boston Red Sox61c163.93$100 inLost-$10052947.4%251 W · 278 L-24.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Toronto Blue Jays39c146.02$57 inWon+$89.072,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Boston Red Sox61c131.15$80 inLost-$8066551.1%340 W · 325 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea6e…7c46backed Boston Red Sox62c113.22$70 inLost-$7067449.4%333 W · 341 L-28.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Toronto Blue Jays39c102.14$40 inWon+$62.312,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcc0…6872backed Toronto Blue Jays49c100$49 inWon+$5114549%71 W · 74 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x203b…7b22backed Boston Red Sox62c96.77$60 inLost-$60922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick51cpaid-59.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Boston Red Sox61c80$49 inLost-$48.82,37649.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6add…6992backed Toronto Blue Jays47c70.21$33 inWon+$37.211643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbe2…6158backed Boston Red Sox62c62.9$39 inLost-$3946659.7%278 W · 188 L+1.9wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Toronto Blue Jays76c60.54$46 inWon+$14.774,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Toronto Blue Jays39c56.43$22 inWon+$34.423,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36f4…0eb2backed Boston Red Sox63c55.12$35 inLost-$3585949.1%422 W · 437 L-3.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdef6…d18fbacked Boston Red Sox62c48.39$30 inLost-$3045348.6%220 W · 233 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Toronto Blue Jays39c36.59$14 inWon+$22.361,17249.1%575 W · 597 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Boston Red Sox61c36$22 inLost-$21.932,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc23…a9f2backed Boston Red Sox62c33$20 inLost-$20.4646854.5%255 W · 213 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed Boston Red Sox62c33$20 inLost-$20.4672154.2%391 W · 330 L+20.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+144.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb81e…8ab9backed Boston Red Sox62c31.5$20 inLost-$19.5347848.5%232 W · 246 L-15.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48b9…abe2backed Toronto Blue Jays39c30$12 inWon+$18.334843.4%151 W · 197 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9991…36b8backed Toronto Blue Jays67c28.79$19 inWon+$9.4626063.8%166 W · 94 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays41c26.58$11 inWon+$15.78,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Boston Red Sox66c21.21$14 inLost-$1489950.6%455 W · 444 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Boston Red Sox61c20$12 inLost-$12.21,06249.2%523 W · 539 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe53…2dbabacked Toronto Blue Jays76c20$15 inWon+$4.893773.5%689 W · 248 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x910c…ed2dbacked Boston Red Sox63c18.5$12 inLost-$11.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.