MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd552a904e04675c8759fee106949e5113144782002396bcd9f389f60110e1567
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,407
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,407 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bc9…ab64backed Under | 5c | 5,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…d2f2backed Under | 5c | 4,972$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.65 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4579…9352backed Under | 38c | 1,640$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 33c | 1,625$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 5c | 1,166$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 71c | 1,105$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.3 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 14c | 1,020$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.85 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 62c | 654.07$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.55 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x466a…76e7backed Under | 52c | 600$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 62c | 530$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.4 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked Over | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 209.59$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.47 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 48c | 202.57$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.89 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 60c | 149.52$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 62c | 108$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 44c | 107.27$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.45 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Over | 33c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…0e0bbacked Over | 28c | 75.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.01 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 79c | 64.78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 37c | 59.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3186…2a53backed Over | 62c | 55.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 46c | 45.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 45c | 43.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 54c | 43.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 52c | 36.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 57c | 32.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88e…929fbacked Over | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Over | 66c | 29.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 60c | 29.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Over | 43c | 29.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab5…da6bbacked Under | 52c | 22.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Under | 52c | 21.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Over | 62c | 21.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2c…be40backed Over | 58c | 20.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 63c | 20.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…78abbacked Over | 63c | 17.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Over | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 162 | 74.1%120 W · 42 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red SoxToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.