MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6963dca545986a9fccbdfe7ae9aadc4d56232ed449aa3e17919facd062755af2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 26c | 6,313$1,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,643.92 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 73c | 4,177$3,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.67 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 2,678$1,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.1 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 29c | 504$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.66 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…0e56backed Boston Red Sox | 30c | 333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 208 | 48.6%101 W · 107 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Boston Red Sox | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Toronto Blue Jays | 69c | 161.29$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Boston Red Sox | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Boston Red Sox | 27c | 159$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Toronto Blue Jays | 72c | 148$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Boston Red Sox | 31c | 112$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Toronto Blue Jays | 69c | 87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1400…765dbacked Boston Red Sox | 25c | 80.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Toronto Blue Jays | 77c | 69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Boston Red Sox | 34c | 43.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Toronto Blue Jays | 71c | 40.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 71c | 40.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…32f2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 207 | 45.9%95 W · 112 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Toronto Blue Jays | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 69c | 22.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 71c | 21.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5e…f0c5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 94 | 73.4%69 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 73c | 20.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red SoxToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.