Ligue 1 · resolved market
Olympique de Marseille vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35696d0e49299789a0b729303d913886d4454e57d2010421929b00459a692df6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 15c | 8,626$1,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,297.32 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…ae7bbacked Under | 76c | 1,580$1,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.2 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee4…9f0cbacked Under | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.82 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 23c | 1,248$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.11 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 22c | 1,036$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1d…820cbacked Under | 78c | 512.82$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.82 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.25per pick | 67cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Under | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 30c | 330$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 23c | 211.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbea…e77bbacked Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 73c | 205.76$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.47 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 21c | 190.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb223…cb07backed Under | 65c | 150.77$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 16c | 126.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Over | 24c | 126.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 23c | 120.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8488…588cbacked Over | 21c | 95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…e18dbacked Over | 30c | 83.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 79c | 75.94$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 21c | 64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d5…173dbacked Under | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…d63fbacked Over | 52c | 40.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5c…00eabacked Under | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e6…a6edbacked Under | 70c | 27.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 4.5this page
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Racing Club de Lens: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 1.5Over won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 2.5Over won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-1.5)Olympique de Marseille won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.