MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3577661fba0663cd410760862b2d307312c675b23a4832613d6cb8cfd3ad6061
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Arizona Diamondbacks, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Washington Nationals | 27c | 25,903$7,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,099.96 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 72c | 12,213$8,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,456.72 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 6,339$3,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,922.6 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 5,920$3,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,324.74 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Washington Nationals | 50c | 5,375$2,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,702.98 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 70c | 4,378$3,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,319.86 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 67c | 2,244$1,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.79 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 68c | 571.12$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.22 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 531.45$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.02 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Washington Nationals | 26c | 376.35$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.85 | 795 | 55.6%442 W · 353 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Washington Nationals | 26c | 367.51$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.55 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Washington Nationals | 30c | 324.44$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.63 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f55…8956backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 262.35$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.82 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Washington Nationals | 30c | 237.65$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 72c | 227.7$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.67 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Washington Nationals | 41c | 184.77$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.64 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 179.71$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.7 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 45c | 163.2$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.76 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 19c | 156$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.36 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 78c | 147.36$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 136.66$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.37 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 125.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 88.33$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…8d0bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 78.69$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 73.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 73.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 69.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Washington Nationals | 45c | 67.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 1,040 | 51.8%539 W · 501 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…d848backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 76c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 116 | 62.9%73 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Washington Nationals | 36c | 55.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 72c | 50.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 48.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 483 | 43.3%209 W · 274 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 77c | 42.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe046…9bc6backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 77c | 36.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 111 | 58.6%65 W · 46 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…a4d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 77c | 32.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 32.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…dc37backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 31.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 67c | 31.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 582 | 54.3%316 W · 266 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…1d65backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 30.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1026…e794backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 77c | 27.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…1173backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 77c | 25.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 25.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0e…704abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 77c | 21.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 77c | 21.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 20.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Washington Nationals | 66c | 19.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ce…41acbacked Washington Nationals | 70c | 19.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 18.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 178 | 42.7%76 W · 102 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x868b…16a0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 74c | 16.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)this page
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Washington Nationals vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.