MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x508ca7e9cb79085e48c0d09d7b2784de50fd7d98ab378d3871c1128b0ce64519
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,024
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,024 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 44c | 10,000$4,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,399.96 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 35c | 4,550$1,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590.96 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a6…0009backed Under | 56c | 4,064$2,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,788.03 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 63c | 4,001$2,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,469.84 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 56c | 3,870$2,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,705.58 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 57c | 2,934$1,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680.8 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 41c | 1,932$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,135.92 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 1,296$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.83 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 45c | 1,193$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.98 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 56c | 1,046$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.53 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 999.99$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.99 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed Over | 58c | 691.42$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 137 | 59.1%81 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 54c | 591.06$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.4 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 61c | 569.65$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.72 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 57c | 342$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.94 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 43c | 312$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.84 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 63c | 285$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.64 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 49c | 283.15$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.15 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 68c | 257.65$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.77 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fd…3e24backed Over | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 59c | 194.92$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 41c | 188.44$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.03 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Over | 50c | 185.55$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 314 | 49.4%155 W · 159 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 56c | 170$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 61c | 159.25$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.11 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 45c | 154.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 63c | 146.07$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.53 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 43c | 122.9$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 44c | 121.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.31 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 69c | 117.2$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 45c | 114.64$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.82 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15cc…bfaabacked Over | 57c | 105.35$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 43c | 102.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 56c | 101.84$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Under | 44c | 90.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.71 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 32c | 81.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 48c | 59.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 47c | 57.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Under | 36c | 57.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Under | 70c | 55.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Under | 36c | 55.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed Under | 67c | 50.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 55c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…dc37backed Under | 56c | 34.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Under | 63c | 31.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 36c | 30.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 37c | 28.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 73c | 25.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c1…601ebacked Over | 57c | 24.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 59c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…1173backed Under | 70c | 23.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd6…3806backed Under | 73c | 22.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 177 | 52.5%93 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 61c | 22.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 57c | 21.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 56c | 20.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453c…b749backed Under | 61c | 19.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…cae4backed Under | 58c | 18.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Over | 64c | 16.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-4.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Washington Nationals vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.