Olympics · resolved market
Country gets medal for first time in Paris Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3589ecdf5855745d466ea6985f87e11b60eb585066ba6c728367b2242d469a36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 17c | 5,002$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e91…b801backed No | 9c | 1,628$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.39 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…5b91backed No | 23c | 523.65$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 19c | 484.1$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.42 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c0…6b87backed No | 11c | 330$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed No | 8c | 308.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0a…6758backed No | 19c | 269.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 13c | 201.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c2…1b1abacked No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb21c…6845backed No | 23c | 155.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed No | 26c | 151.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d8…3484backed Yes | 77c | 125$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…9d02backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafdb…f554backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255c…956cbacked No | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf038…1391backed No | 27c | 73.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…221dbacked Yes | 78c | 48.74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0be…999abacked No | 32c | 46.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x043d…7bfebacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2f…974dbacked No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 67c | 39.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…84febacked Yes | 75c | 36.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb84…a22cbacked Yes | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23f9…cc0dbacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce3…b625backed Yes | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 68c | 22.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa679…65afbacked Yes | 76c | 14.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.