South American Leagues · resolved market
CR Flamengo vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35b3a79c8e8485ccfc8869a42bf6d57d1e0a13857b65d45d15270bbd6f825930
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 14c | 1,373$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.42 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 18c | 901.79$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.03 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 15c | 663.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.51 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 24c | 275.21$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.18 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…fa81backed Over | 73c | 120.05$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 26c | 70.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…15e9backed Over | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…f7aebacked Over | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 48 | 85.4%41 W · 7 L | +8.5wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Over | 76c | 64.47$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0614…ff8bbacked Over | 76c | 39.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdd…c6bbbacked Over | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad84…1897backed Over | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 124 | 39.5%49 W · 75 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7d…9b6cbacked Over | 78c | 24.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 61 | 72.1%44 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 77c | 17.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CR Flamengo vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 1.5this page
- CR Flamengo vs. CR Vasco da Gama: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CR Flamengo vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 2.5Over won
- CR Flamengo vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 3.5Over won
- CR Flamengo vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)CR Vasco da Gama won
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-2.5)CR Vasco da Gama won
- Spread: CR Vasco da Gama (-2.5)CR Flamengo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.