Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35b572363f7e34035e3885d2eb64d6dffcbbddee974d294b1fa2168ddaef2309
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,585
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 2c | 1,065$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 35c | 930.29$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.67 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 11c | 728.46$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.29 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed Yes | 6c | 410.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 394$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.72 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 29c | 373.26$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.58 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 4c | 329.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 307$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.16 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 18c | 300$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaa…4c15backed Yes | 5c | 290.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 65c | 287.93$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.15 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 41c | 236.61$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.78 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 77c | 168.88$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 167.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked Yes | 21c | 143.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 132.65$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 12c | 119.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0412…d9c2backed Yes | 16c | 113.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a03…8feabacked Yes | 21c | 110.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 58c | 99.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 93.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 35c | 89.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 86.94$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 78.66$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 78.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 23c | 78.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 72c | 74.4$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 74.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 73.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 27c | 69.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 57.58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa821…0bc8backed No | 72c | 56.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 37c | 55.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 75c | 53.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…2c67backed Yes | 26c | 53.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 66c | 53.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 52.17$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 67c | 50.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 54c | 45.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 72c | 41.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 65c | 41.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bb…ec4fbacked Yes | 38c | 41.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 46c | 40.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a75…bc59backed Yes | 36c | 38.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 71c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 32c | 31.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 72c | 30.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 68c | 29.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d64…e3fdbacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2840…3b7abacked Yes | 41c | 27.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 62c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 70c | 26.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…fb40backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 61c | 23.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 72c | 22.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 71c | 21.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa012…2af7backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 69c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.