Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fcea48138c124ef396c4d4288eb080be0d8086b801a6bcb2975f7f6408b1376
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,362
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,362 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,065$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.55 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x455c…e548backed No | 4c | 564.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -5.6wins | -0.17per pick | 66cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 17c | 536.33$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.02 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 50c | 483.14$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.86 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 21c | 476.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.79 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 31c | 439.78$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 37c | 382.58$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.52 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 57c | 380.53$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.86 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 307$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.88 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 285.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 76c | 267.52$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.54 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 8c | 239.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 32c | 236.36$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.77 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 27c | 235.78$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.09 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 56c | 233.08$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.28 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 21c | 204.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.74 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 29c | 202.74$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 8c | 202.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8076…85f9backed Yes | 9c | 168.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.24 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf75f…b458backed Yes | 75c | 163.12$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 35c | 158.71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.81 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 76c | 153$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.28 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 74c | 151.65$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.89 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 58c | 134.34$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 130.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 25c | 120.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 117.3$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 16c | 100.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.48 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 35c | 100.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 67c | 99.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a75…bc59backed Yes | 59c | 98.82$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…36cdbacked Yes | 50c | 96.74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 72c | 95.83$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 94.69$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.91 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 27c | 94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 78c | 93.86$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.1 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…e169backed Yes | 64c | 91.95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 78c | 89.89$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.55 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 78.5$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed Yes | 61c | 73.04$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…2d49backed No | 21c | 72.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…ea9abacked Yes | 45c | 67.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 32c | 66.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 60c | 61.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 47c | 57.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 42c | 55.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa59…09febacked Yes | 37c | 52.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 52.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…21f4backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed No | 73c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 39c | 49.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 48c | 46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 78c | 45.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 43c | 45.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 78c | 42.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 26c | 39.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 69c | 38.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 77c | 37.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3b…2bf8backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 49c | 34.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 39c | 28.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 45c | 26.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36a2…b8fabacked No | 78c | 25.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 79c | 23.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 21.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 60c | 17.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98cf…852abacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 72cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a33…ca0dbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.