Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35b7c32096ce1b035b3e760d1ebd2c45e568c3c09e2ff67baca9fe271b2a821a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 34c | 899.99$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.23 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 31c | 878.25$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.86 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 495.35$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.5 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 37c | 440.97$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.62 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed No | 60c | 283.82$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.14 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 44c | 268.23$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.07 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 39c | 239$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.18 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03b5…c585backed No | 11c | 233.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 45c | 221.57$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.28 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 10c | 217.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 77c | 204.86$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.09 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 67c | 200$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 195.1$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.58 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed No | 68c | 178.76$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.94 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 165.64$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 32c | 163.35$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 12c | 158.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 152$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.17 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 23c | 133.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.04 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 28c | 111.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.38 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 41c | 109$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 27c | 92.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.31 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 68c | 90.83$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 36c | 83.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.15 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 27c | 77.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.88 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 76.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 25c | 75.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 50c | 73.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 58c | 67.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 26c | 61.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 58c | 60.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…d271backed No | 69c | 59.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…c0a7backed No | 68c | 55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 53.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 34c | 50.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 64c | 48.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 33c | 45.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…f620backed No | 69c | 43.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3892…9d03backed No | 69c | 43.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 35c | 41.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 58c | 40.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 72c | 37.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 67c | 35.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked No | 69c | 35.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 33.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 33.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 64c | 32.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 64c | 32.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 61c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 55c | 30.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 66c | 27.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 63c | 25.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 70c | 21.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked No | 65c | 21.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…7217backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 71c | 17.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 62c | 16.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 66c | 16.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 66c | 15.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…c9fdbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.82 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.